I looked at the amount of OHL games each played from the last 5 years for each OHL team. This wasn't just OHL games played with the team they drafted them but all OHL games total. I wanted to take a look at see if there were certain teams that did a better job of drafting players that would go on to play in the league. Obviously not all the draft class's have finished their OHL eligibility. '14 has completed 5 seasons while '15 has finished 4, '16 has finished 3 etc.
Obviously looking at games played isnt the perfect way to look at draft success. After all 60 games as a 19 year old are more valuable than 60 games as a 16 year old. Further more a 50 point season from an OA isn't as valuable as a 50 point season from an 18 or 19 year old. That said you can get an idea of how successful a team is at lacquering OHL talent through the draft.
I then went and looked at the 5 year stretch from '09 to '13 to get an idea of what an average draft class should be able to pull in. The reason I wanted 5 other than a larger sample was that as a junior player you have 5 years of eligibility if you play an OA season. Also there are only so many roster spots available so logically if you have a strong draft class one year there will be less spots available for the next class to develop and play in the OHL.
I also went and broke it down further to see which teams have more success in the middle and late rounds and which teams were more reliant on early round picks. If there is one thing that makes OHL fans horny it is 2nd round draft picks and while I didn't go into too much depth there I want to see if which teams can be success full without them.
2014-2018 OHL Priority Selection
Over the last 5 seasons the 3 teams that have had the most success in drafting have been the Barrie Colts, Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds and the Guelph Storm. The Colts have been a model of consistency has they are currently in the top 10 in OHL games played for each draft class. What makes it even more impressive is their inability to sign 1st round draft picks yet they keep getting OHL games out of their players.
In terms of total games from their draft classes Barrie, Sault Ste. Marie, Erie and Niagara round out to top 4. What may be surprising to some is that these 4 teams and the 4 fewest 2nd round draft picks over that period with 1, 2, 1 and 3 respectively. You can have all the 2nd round picks in the world but when drafting 15 year olds you can get talent in more than just the early rounds.
This year marks the 6th straight season the Greyhounds have made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs. A lot of that success comes form their strong drafting. Particularly their 2014 draft which produced 9 OHLers out of their 16 picks. he 1738 games played by that draft class is the 4th highest in the last 6 draft class's that have completed their 5 years of OHL eligibility.
The only time in the past 5 years were the Greyhounds are not in the top 5 among games played by draft classes would be their 2018 draft were they are 13th but with only a 16 year old season in the books it is to early to read to much into that.
The Guelph Storm have had strong early returns from their 2018 draft class which is surprising when you consider the fact that they were a contending team this year. They have had slightly above average draft classes in terms of games since a below average 2014.
The bottom 3 teams have one big surprise and that is the Oshawa Generals who are consistently among the lowest in the OHL among OHL games from their draft class. Owen Sound, Windsor and North Bay are the next 3 on the list.
The Generals have finished either 18th or 19th except for 2016 when they were able to come in at 15th. What has allowed them to stay competitive though is they do a very good job of hitting on their early picks and Roger Hunt has shown an uncanny ability had extracting as much value as he can from the trade market.
Windsor's 2014 draft produced only 2 players. Logan Stanley and Daniil Vertiy in a draft that can only be described as a disaster for the team. If not for the selection of Michael DiPietro who is one of the best goalies the OHL has seen in recent memory the past 5 years could have been worse. Although how much worse could it have gotten than 6 playoff wins in the last 5 years.
Top 5 Rounds
A lot of focus is directed at the top 5 rounds and rightfully so. Most of the top talent is taken in the early rounds and the majority of those who will play in the OHL are taken in the top 5 rounds. Some teams are more reliant than others on getting talent in the top 5 rounds and some struggle to make an impact with their early round picks.
Most reliant on the top 5 rounds
Oshawa received a staggering 96% of their drafted OHL games from the first 5 rounds since 2014. They have done well getting players like Serron Noel and Nick Wong (who they moved for an impact player at this past deadline) in round 2 but their lack of success after the early rounds may be one of the reasons why this team has been unable to get over the hump. In past years they have been able to find quality OHLers like Jimmy McDowell, Chris Carlise and Jalen Semerek in the later rounds but not recently.
The Petes lead the way with 3286 games played from the top 5 rounds. With their yearly large cupboard of draft picks this doesn't come as much of a surprise. 92% of their drafted games played comes from the early rounds but with so many early round picks it shouldn't come as a surprise. If they were to have a little more success with their later round picks however maybe it would allow them to move some of these assets to help them now?
Sudbury, Kitchener and Saginaw are the only other teams with more than 85% of their games coming from the top 5 rounds. All 3 teams had plenty of 2nd round picks. Saginaw has actually had the most in the past 5 seasons with 9.
Fewest games played by top 5 round draft picks
Windsor, Mississauga and North Bay all have the fewest drafted games played by their early round picks.
North Bay particularly has struggled to hit with their top picks. Their highest NHL drafted player that they selected in the OHL priority selection is Cam Morrison who never set foot in North Bay. The Colorado 2nd rounder just wrapped up his Junior season with Notre Dame. Outside of that there haven't been any real stand out players who have forced their way into making an impact at the OHL level.
Windsor had a horrendous 2014 draft which was mentioned above. A strong '15 draft but were missing a 1st in 2016 and sold the farm for '17 which attributed to their low early round numbers. Still they managed 6 2nds over that period. 2 of which never played in the OHL.
Mississauga is surprisingly low considering they had 6 1st over the last 5 years. Unfortunately they went with Jack Hughes who was never going to play in the OHL and Nizhnikov who they at least got value out of via trade but he is no longer in the OHL and adding to the games played numbers.
Fewest 2nd round picks
Barrie and Erie have only had 1 2nd round pick the last 5 seasons. They had the 12th and 15th most games played from top 5 round picks over that period
The Soo Greyhounds only had 2 2nd round draft picks the last 5 years yet have the 7th most games played among players taken in the top 5 rounds.
The Niagara Icedogs with only 3 2nds have the 10th most games played among their first 5 round draft picks over the past five seasons.
Why did I want to look at these teams? Because over the past 4 seasons these 4 teams have the top 4 spots for most games played from the past 5 draft classes.
Middle and Late Rounds
Barrie Colts and their Mid Round success
The Colts have over 1500 games from their mid round selections over the past 5 drafts. Less than 100 away from what the North Bay Battalion of gotten from their picks in the top 5 rounds. This ability to get OHL calibre players has allowed the Colts to get aggressive in their rebuilds and bounce back to home ice calibre in short order. Jaden Peca, Kade Landry and Christopher Cameron were all mid round picks in 2015. Their presence allowed the Colts to make a quick run in 2018 with Svechnikov as they gave their roster some much needed depth.
Erie and Sault Ste. Marie and their late round finds
The Otters and Greyhounds have shown an uncanny knack for finding hidden gems in the later rounds. In 2014 the Hounds selected Mac Hollowell in round 12. He now has an NHL contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs and will likely be a finalist for the Max Kaminsky Trophy. Some other gems include Theo Calvas who put up strong seasons with Sarnia and North Bay, Zack Trott who has developed into a very tenacious 3rd liner with a bit of a scoring touch and the last player taken in the 2017 draft Cullen Mclean.
In 2014 the Otters tabbed Christian Girhiny in round 11. he would suit up in parts of 4 seasons and even added a memorial cup goal. In 2016 they selected Cade Robinson (who is now with Owen Sound) in round 11 and Maxim Golod in round 13.
North Bay's 2014 draft
The Battalion had quite an ending to their 2014 draft as they selected both Cam Dineen and Justin Brazeau in the later rounds. Brazeau will likely win the OA player of the year award this year after setting a franchise record for goals in a year and Dineen was likely the most electric defender in Battalion history and brought in quite the bounty when dealt at the 2018 deadline.
Guelph and Flint
The Storm and Firebirds seem to have gone into a lull in terms of identifying talent from the later rounds.
Flint has been loaded in terms of draft capital in recent years so one may point to a lack of opportunity for their early round picks
While the Storm have 0 games from the last 5 rounds they do have the 2nd most from their mid round picks which has allowed them to make a push this year with players like Popovich, Ralph and Stevenson who have given them the depth needed to support the stars they have acquired.
2009-2013 drafts
I wanted to run the numbers from these 5 drafts because they are the five most recent without any current OHLers on them and it will give an idea of what an average OHL draft brings in terms of OHL games played. At the end of the day there are only so many spots available and you can also add in the amount of games taken from import picks and FA signings. Depending on how the u18 draft continues to develop there will be another avenue for players to get into the league outside of the priority selection.
There wasn't much different in terms of total games with 2009 bringing 23522 OHL games worth of players while 2011 only brought in 21295. The difference of about 112 per team.
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