Thursday 21 March 2019

Western Conference 1st round Preview

(1) London Knights vs (8) Windsor Spitfires

Schedule

1. Fri Mar 22 @ London
2. Sun Mar 24 @ London
3. Tue Mar 26 @ Windsor
4. Thu Mar 28 @ Windsor
5. Fri Mar 29 @ London
6. Sun Mar 31 @ Windsor
7. Tue Apr 02 @ London
Special Teams
London PP 23.1% 9th --- PK 85.8% 1st
Windsor PP 18% 17th --- PK 79.9% 7th
What to watch for

The London Knights were short handed 289 times this season which was 3rd most in the OHL this year. Windsor conversely was only shorthanded 234 times which was the 3rd fewest. London pp-pk differential this season was -33 while Windsor's was +16

Expect some high quality scoring chances in this series. Nearly 14% of the shots Windsor gives up are in high danger areas which ranked 2nd most in the OHL. London meanwhile gave up the 5th highest percentage of high danger shots at 13.3%

The London Knights were eliminated in the 1st round last year by Owen Sound. The last time they failed to get out of the 1st round was 2011 which was also at the hands of Owen Sound. The next year? Their 1st of back to back OHL titles.

Spitfires rookie Will Cuylle finished 1st among '02 born players with 2.95 shots per game

Prediction
London in 4 games

(2) Saginaw Spirit vs (7) Sarnia Sting

Schedule

1. Thu Mar 21 @ Saginaw
2. Sat Mar 23 @ Saginaw
3. Tue Mar 26 @ Sarnia
4. Thu Mar 28 @ Sarnia
5. Sat Mar 30 @ Saginaw
6. Sun Mar 31 @ Sarnia
7. Tue Apr 02  @ Saginaw
Special Teams

Saginaw PP 22.5% 10th --- PK 82.9% 3rd
Sarnia PP 20.1% 13th --- PK 77.9% 7th

What to watch for

Super rookie Cole Perfetti finished the year with 74 points. That is the most by a 16 year old rookie since Alex Galchenyuk picked up 83 in 2010-11

Team Canada will have an eye on this series as Jamison Rees would be a big boost to the U18 team if the Sting fall to the Spirit.

The Spirit currently own a 14 game playoff losing streak and are 1-16 in their last 4 trips to the playoffs. Their last trip as a #2 seed was 2011 where they ultimately fell to the Windsor Spitfires in round 2.

Maple Leafs 6th rounder Ryan McGregor had a career year as he nearly doubled his points per game output and finished with 77 in 61 games. He also added 6 short handed markers for the Sting.

Prediction
Saginaw in 4 games

(3) Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds vs (6) Owen Sound Attack

Schedule

1. Thu Mar 21 @ SSM
2. Sat Mar 23 @ SSM
3. Mon Mar 25 @ OS
4. Wed Mar 27 @ OS
5. Fri Mar 29 @ SSM
6. Sun Mar 31 @ OS
7. Tue Apr 02 @ SSM

Special Teams

SSM PP 22.3% 11th --- PK 82.2% 4th
Owen Sound 19.8% 14th --- PK 76.2% 17th
What to watch for

Only 2 current OHL defenders are in the top 100 in career OHL playoff games among defencemen and both suit up for the Greyhounds. Jordan Sambrook is 15th all time with 59 and Mac Hollowell is 88th all time with 47 games. How far up the charts will they climb this year?

The Owen sound attack finished the season with the 19th ranked team shooting percentage at 9% and the 17th ranked save percentage at .874%. Part of their problem is their inability to generate offence in high danger areas. over 78% of their shots were taken from low danger areas with only a a6.36% shooting percentage. When they do get their good scoring opportunities though they take advantage as they had the 8th best shooting percentage in high danger areas.

Mathew Villalta is coming into the playoffs hot with a March save percentage of .939%. One area though where Villalta has excelled all year is on the penalty kill. He is 2nd in the league with a .909sv% when the Hounds are down 4vs5 with an insane .874sv% on high danger shots. This allows the Greyhounds to play extra aggressive on the PK and has helped them score 20 short handed goals this year.

Aiden Dudas and Trenton Bourque both sit 20th on the Attacks all time list with 28 career playoff games. They should be able to tie Joel Ward with 4 games this series.

Prediction
Sault Ste. Marie in 4 games

(4) Guelph Storm vs (5) Kitchener Rangers

Schedule

1. Fri Mar 22 @ Guelph
2. Sun Mar 24 @ Guelph
3. Tue Mar 26 @ Kitchener
4. Thu Mar 28 @ Kitchener
5. Fri Mar 29 @ Guelph
6. Sun Mar 31 @ Kitchener
7. Tue Apr 02 @ Guelph
Special Teams

Guelph PP 25.8% 3rd --- PK 79.1% 8th
Kitchener PP 29% 1st --- PK 76.9% 15th

What to watch for

Two top 3 power plays face off. Kitchener may be #1 but the Guelph storm gave up few short handed goals. In fact if you take their short handed goals allowed and subtract that form their power play goals scored they are a +62 where Kitchener would be a +61

Kitchener had the #1 power play in the OHL this year. The last time a team with the top power play didn't have home ice? The 2011 playoffs when the 7th seeded Wolves swept the 2 seed 67s. I went as far back as 2006 and could not find a team with the top power play to lose in the 1st round of the playoffs.

Storm Captain Isaac Ratcliffe was able to climb all the way to #2 on the Storm all time goal list finishing his Storm regular season career with 120 goals. He picked up 5 in 6 playoff games last year so expect more of the same this year.

Joseph Garreffa is the highest returning point getter from last years Rangers squad. He picked up 19 points in 19 games in their run to the OHL finals.

Prediction
Guelph in 5 games

Wednesday 20 March 2019

Eastern Conference 1st round Preview

(1) Ottawa 67s vs (8) Hamilton Bulldogs

Schedule

1. Fri Mar 22 Ottawa
2. Sun Mar 24 Ottawa
3. Tue Mar 26 Hamilton
4. Wed Mar 27 Hamilton
5. Fri Mar 29 Ottawa
6. Sun Mar 31 Hamilton
7. Tue Apr 02 Ottawa
Special Teams
Ottawa  PP 23.2% 8th --- PK
Hamilton PP 25.2% 4th --- PK

What to watch for

The 183 goals allowed by the 67s is the lowest total given up by an Eastern Conference team since the Oshawa Generals gave up only 157 goals in 2014-15.

Hamilton are the reigning OHL champions but they return 0 minutes of experience between the pipes and 0 games on the blue line from last years squad.

Even with missing the playoffs last year with Erie Kyle Maksimovich ranks 77th all time in career playoff games with 55 in his OHL career.

Arthur Kaliyev finished the year with 51 goals and 51 assists. It is rare that an OHL player is added to Team USA for the U18s but could Kaliyev be the exception this year?

Prediction
Ottawa in 4 games

(2) Niagara Icedogs vs (7) North Bay Battalion

Schedule

1. Thu Mar 21 @ Niagara
2. Sat Mar 23 @ Niagara
3. Tue Mar 26 @ North Bay
4. Thu Mar 28 @ North Bay
5. Fri Mar 29 @ Niagara
6. Sun Mar 31 @ North Bay
7. Tue Apr 02 @ Niagara

Special Teams

Niagara PP 28.1% 2nd --- PK 77.2% 14th
North Bay PP 24.1% 6th --- PK 77.6% 11th

What to watch for

Getting through these early round games will be paramount for the Icedogs. Starting goalie Stephen Dhillon leads the OHL with 3418 minutes played this year and 1855 shots faced. In the last 3 seasons he has finished 1st, 8th and 2nd in the league in minutes played.

Likely OA player of the year Justin Brazeau set a Franchise mark for the Battalion with 61 goals this year. will likely have an NHL contract by the end of the playoffs with 5 teams expressing varying levels of interest including the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Boston Bruins.

Jason Robertson won the Eddie Powers Memorial Trophy for leading the league in scoring. It is the 2nd straight year the winner of the award was involved in a mid season trade and 4th since 2008-09. The others. Aaron Luchuck, Vincent Trocheck and John Tavares all fell short in leading their new teams to an OHL title.

North Bay gave up the 2nd most amount of shots this year in the OHL with at 2563. What makes this troubling is that Niagara led the league with 2587 shots.

Prediction
Niagara in 4 games


(3) Oshawa Generals vs (6) Peterborough Petes

Schedule

1. Fri Mar 22 @ Oshawa
2. Sun Mar 24 @ Oshawa
3. Tue Mar 26 @ Peterborough
4. Thu Mar 28 @ Peterborough
5. Sat Mar 30 @ Oshawa
6. Sun Mar 31 @ Peterborough
7. Tue Apr 02 @ Oshawa

Special Teams

Oshawa PP 24.5% 5th --- PK 81.9% 5th
Peterborough PP 19% 15th --- PK 77.7% 10th

What to watch for

Kyle Keyser finished 2nd in the league with a .915 save percentage. A large reason for that is Oshawa's ability to keep the play to the outside. Over 79% of the shots he faced 5on5 were from low danger area's which were the most in the league among goalies with 20 games played

Hunter Jones finished 3rd in the league with 3156 minutes played. He is getting hot at the right time with a save percentage over .900 in 6 of his last 8 outings. In his previous 14 games? Only 2 with a save percentage over .900 with 3 in that stretch of .800 or lower.

OA forward Brandon Saigeon finished the year with with 92 points. 45 of which came on the power play which led the OHL. Their other OA forward Anthony Salinitri led the OHL with 7 SHGs and finished 2nd to Morgan Frost with 10 short handed points.

Only 1 player on the Petes averaged more than a point per game this year while in a Peterborough uniform. That was Nick Robertson with 55 points in 54 games


Prediction
Oshawa in 6 games

(4) Sudbury Wolves vs (5) Mississauga Steelheads

Schedule
1. Fri Mar 22 @ Sudbury
2. Sat Mar 23 @ Sudbury
3. Sun Mar 24 @ Mississauga
4. Wed Mar 27 @ Mississauga
5. Thu Mar 28 @ Sudbury
6. Sun Mar 31 @ Mississauga
7. Mon Apr 1 @ Sudbury
Special Teams

Sudbury PP 13.6% 20th --- PK 83.3% 2nd
Mississauga PP 23.8% 7th --- PK 79.9% 6th

What to watch for

In 30 games since coming over from the Sarnia Sting Adam Ruzicka picked up 41 points in 30 games with 24 goals and 17 assists. On top of that he averaged over 4.5 shots per game in Sudbury and was 56.9% of his face offs.

14.14% of the shots that Steelheads goalie Jacob Ingham has faced this year are from High Danger areas. That is tops among OHL starting goalies. In fact only 69.4% of the shots he faced were from Low Danger areas which was the lowest total among OHL goalies in the playoffs at 5on5.

 How rare is it for a team with the worst PP in the league to get home ice in the 1st round? Well ut of the last 4 teams to do 1 was an 8th seed and the other 3 missed the playoffs but in 2013-14 the North Bay Battalion finished with the worst power play picked up the #2 seed and marched to the OHL finals.

With 15 goals this year rookie James Hardie tied Owen Tippets output which is the most by a Mississauga 16yo rookie since Casey Cisikas picked up 18 in his rookie year.

Prediction

Sudbury in 5 games