Schedule
1. Fri Mar 22 @ London
2. Sun Mar 24 @ London
3. Tue Mar 26 @ Windsor
4. Thu Mar 28 @ Windsor
5. Fri Mar 29 @ London
6. Sun Mar 31 @ Windsor
7. Tue Apr 02 @ London
London PP 23.1% 9th --- PK 85.8% 1st
Windsor PP 18% 17th --- PK 79.9% 7th
What to watch for
The London Knights were short handed 289 times this season which was 3rd most in the OHL this year. Windsor conversely was only shorthanded 234 times which was the 3rd fewest. London pp-pk differential this season was -33 while Windsor's was +16
Expect some high quality scoring chances in this series. Nearly 14% of the shots Windsor gives up are in high danger areas which ranked 2nd most in the OHL. London meanwhile gave up the 5th highest percentage of high danger shots at 13.3%
The London Knights were eliminated in the 1st round last year by Owen Sound. The last time they failed to get out of the 1st round was 2011 which was also at the hands of Owen Sound. The next year? Their 1st of back to back OHL titles.
Spitfires rookie Will Cuylle finished 1st among '02 born players with 2.95 shots per game
Prediction
London in 4 games
(2) Saginaw Spirit vs (7) Sarnia Sting
Schedule
1. Thu Mar 21 @ Saginaw
2. Sat Mar 23 @ Saginaw
3. Tue Mar 26 @ Sarnia
4. Thu Mar 28 @ Sarnia
5. Sat Mar 30 @ Saginaw
6. Sun Mar 31 @ Sarnia
7. Tue Apr 02 @ Saginaw
Saginaw PP 22.5% 10th --- PK 82.9% 3rd
Sarnia PP 20.1% 13th --- PK 77.9% 7th
What to watch for
Super rookie Cole Perfetti finished the year with 74 points. That is the most by a 16 year old rookie since Alex Galchenyuk picked up 83 in 2010-11
Team Canada will have an eye on this series as Jamison Rees would be a big boost to the U18 team if the Sting fall to the Spirit.
The Spirit currently own a 14 game playoff losing streak and are 1-16 in their last 4 trips to the playoffs. Their last trip as a #2 seed was 2011 where they ultimately fell to the Windsor Spitfires in round 2.
Maple Leafs 6th rounder Ryan McGregor had a career year as he nearly doubled his points per game output and finished with 77 in 61 games. He also added 6 short handed markers for the Sting.
Prediction
Saginaw in 4 games
(3) Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds vs (6) Owen Sound Attack
Schedule
1. Thu Mar 21 @ SSM
2. Sat Mar 23 @ SSM
3. Mon Mar 25 @ OS
4. Wed Mar 27 @ OS
5. Fri Mar 29 @ SSM
6. Sun Mar 31 @ OS
7. Tue Apr 02 @ SSM
SSM PP 22.3% 11th --- PK 82.2% 4th
Owen Sound 19.8% 14th --- PK 76.2% 17th
What to watch for
Only 2 current OHL defenders are in the top 100 in career OHL playoff games among defencemen and both suit up for the Greyhounds. Jordan Sambrook is 15th all time with 59 and Mac Hollowell is 88th all time with 47 games. How far up the charts will they climb this year?
The Owen sound attack finished the season with the 19th ranked team shooting percentage at 9% and the 17th ranked save percentage at .874%. Part of their problem is their inability to generate offence in high danger areas. over 78% of their shots were taken from low danger areas with only a a6.36% shooting percentage. When they do get their good scoring opportunities though they take advantage as they had the 8th best shooting percentage in high danger areas.
Mathew Villalta is coming into the playoffs hot with a March save percentage of .939%. One area though where Villalta has excelled all year is on the penalty kill. He is 2nd in the league with a .909sv% when the Hounds are down 4vs5 with an insane .874sv% on high danger shots. This allows the Greyhounds to play extra aggressive on the PK and has helped them score 20 short handed goals this year.
Aiden Dudas and Trenton Bourque both sit 20th on the Attacks all time list with 28 career playoff games. They should be able to tie Joel Ward with 4 games this series.
Prediction
Sault Ste. Marie in 4 games
(4) Guelph Storm vs (5) Kitchener Rangers
Schedule
1. Fri Mar 22 @ Guelph
2. Sun Mar 24 @ Guelph
3. Tue Mar 26 @ Kitchener
4. Thu Mar 28 @ Kitchener
5. Fri Mar 29 @ Guelph
6. Sun Mar 31 @ Kitchener
7. Tue Apr 02 @ Guelph
Guelph PP 25.8% 3rd --- PK 79.1% 8th
Kitchener PP 29% 1st --- PK 76.9% 15th
What to watch for
Two top 3 power plays face off. Kitchener may be #1 but the Guelph storm gave up few short handed goals. In fact if you take their short handed goals allowed and subtract that form their power play goals scored they are a +62 where Kitchener would be a +61
Kitchener had the #1 power play in the OHL this year. The last time a team with the top power play didn't have home ice? The 2011 playoffs when the 7th seeded Wolves swept the 2 seed 67s. I went as far back as 2006 and could not find a team with the top power play to lose in the 1st round of the playoffs.
Storm Captain Isaac Ratcliffe was able to climb all the way to #2 on the Storm all time goal list finishing his Storm regular season career with 120 goals. He picked up 5 in 6 playoff games last year so expect more of the same this year.
Joseph Garreffa is the highest returning point getter from last years Rangers squad. He picked up 19 points in 19 games in their run to the OHL finals.
Prediction
Guelph in 5 games
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