Thursday 19 October 2017

OHL vs Russia Roster analysis

With Game 3 of the CIBC CHL vs Russia series in Owen Sound slated to take place in 22 days the roster of players for the OHLs 2 games were released on Wednesday. The rosters were realeased a week earlier than last season and this years team comprises of 4 goalies, 8 defencemen and 16 forwards. Last seasons announcement which came 16 days before the game in North Bay put the OHLs roster at 3 goalies, 9 defencemen and 13 forwards although some were added later as a result if injuries and expanding the rosters a bit.

I will breakdown the roster and look at who should be in a good spot for a World Junior Camp invite, who has an opportunity to really impress in hopes of earning a spot and who is here to gain experience for next year. We are already in mid to late October and the camp invites will be going out in about 6 weeks. Over the last 3 years the OHL has sent on average to the selection camp .66 goalies, 2.33 defencemen and 8.33 forwards. So while some may feel certain players are "destined" to earn a camp invite there really aren't that many to go around.

Goalies

Dylan Wells Peterborough Petes CHL-Russia Series Returnee

This will be the 3rd time that Wells will put on a team OHL jersey for this series having been named in '15-'16 and '16-'17 although he stayed on the bench last season. He had 31 minutes of play in the 2015 game stopping all 10 shots he faced. As for donning the Maple Leaf Wells has done that twice in his career. Once with Team Canada Red at the U17 and again with Team Canada at the Hlinka Tournament where he skated away with a Gold.
WJC Invite Chances: Strong

Michael DiPietro Windsor Spitfires

This will be the first time DiPietro suits up for team OHL in this series. I was rather shocked by his omission last season and felt team Canada should have brought him along to the world juniors as their 3rd goalie for the experience because of his elite play and the strong likely hood that he would be on the team this year and next. Michael has reprasented Canada 3 times in his career. 2015-16 with Team Canada Red at the U17 where he had the lowest G.A.A. in the tournament. That same year he was the 3rd goalie at the U18 championships and that summer he was on team Canada at the Hlinka tournament. If you want more short tournament success look no further than last seasons Memorial Cup where he helped lead the Spits to the title.
WJC Invite Chances: Strong

Matthew Villalta Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds

Not drafted into the OHL but signed as a FA with the Greyhounds after a growth spurt his midget year and a stellar rookie and main camp. Most OHL fans should know the rest of the story by now. Out played Joseph Raaymakers to win over the starters job near the end of the season. Drafted by the LA Kings this past June and now controls the crease in the Soo with the trade of Raaymakers to London this week. The 2016-17 Dinty Moore Trophey winner has never represented Canada before so I am sure this will be an experience he will be looking forward to even if there is a chance he wont get on the ice.
WJC Invite Chances: Not happening. Although if he gets in the game and has a strong showing it will go a long way towards next season

Jacob Ingham Mississauga Steelheads

The Steelheads 2nd year man is not having the strongest of seasons so far with a save percentage of .858 However he was named to the OHLs 1st Team All-Rookie list last season and picked up a Silver Medal in his only other time putting on the Maple Leaf as part of Team Canada Black at last years U17 where he sported a .927 save percentage.
WJC Invite Chances: Not Happening but like Villalta he is here for the expierience and should be a treat in 2 years.

Snubs: There are really no Snubs. This group would have been fine naming the first 3 and having one of them in both games but this way Ingham gets some expierience which should have happened with Dipiertro last season


Defence

Nic Hague Mississauga Steelheads Returnee

For the 2nd year in a row Nic Hague is slated to play in  the series. He was held pointless last season in 2 games and was a -1. He has donned the Maple Leaf twice in his career. The first time was for Team Canada White at the U-17 in 2014-15 while playing out of the GOJHL. He finished with 2 goals in that tournament while in the spring of 2016 he played for Team Canada's entry in the U18 and finished with 2 assists. The hulking blueliner who was a 2nd round pick of the Vegas Golden Knights should seal an invite at the World Junior camp with a strong showing.
WJC Invite Chances: Good

Markus Phillips Owen Sound Attack Returnee

A 4th round pick of the LA Kings this past June Phillips is one of 4 returning blueliners. He was held pointless in his 1 game last year but is no stranger to playing for Team Canada. Twice Phillips has donned the "C" while wearing the red and white. First was as a member of Team Canada at the 2015-16 U17 challenge. That spring he was an underage for Team Canada at the U18 where he picked up 2 assists in 7 games. Later that summer he got a chance to put on the "C" for the 2nd time for Canada's entry into the Hlinka tournament.
WJC Invite Chances: 50/50

Jordan Sambrook Erie Otters Returnee Both Games

Sambrook has never represented Canada in international competition before but he was an injury replacement for last seasons OHL-Russia series. While he doesnt have the international experience others have he was an integral part of the Otters OHL championship team last year and as a 16 year old he helped lead the Toronto Nats the a Telus Cup Championship.
WJC Invite Chances: Above Average

Logan Stanley Kitchener Rangers Returnee

Fresh off an offseason trade with the Spits, Stanley is off to a great start this year with his hometown Rangers. Logan played in 1 game last year but the towering defender has twice before played for Team Canada. 2014-15 at the U17 and 2015-16 with the U18 program. While neither of those teams won a medal Stanley does have a memorial cup title under his belt earned this past May with the Windsor Spitfires.
WJC Invite Chacnes: Good

Evan Bouchard London Knights Both Games

The late birthday defender is one of 2 NHL draft eligible blueliners on the OHL roster. Bouchard won a gold medal in the 2015-16 season suiting up for Team Canada White at the U17. In fact he was the highest scoring defender and names to the tournament all star team. He suited up for Canada again at the 2016 Hlinka where he was pointless in 4 games.
WJC Invite Chances: Will need a strong 2 games

Conor Timmins Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds Both Games

A 2nd round draft pick of the Colorado Avalanche this past June Timmins has never represented Canada at any level. The slick puck moving defender finished 2nd last season among OHL defenders in Even Strength Point trailing only OA and Max Kaminsky winner Darren Raddysh. Timmins gets to suit up in both games and should have a good chance of earning a camp invite with a strong showing.
WJC Invite Chances: Good

Kevin Bahl Ottawa 67s

The towering sophomore defender for the 67s is coming off of a gold medal performance at the Hlinka tournament where he really turned some heads with his play and saw his draft stock shoot up. Outside of the Hlinka tournament he also suited up for one of Team Canada's entry's in the U16 tournament last year in Sault Ste. Marie.
WJC Invite Chances: Not happening but will be on U18 team in spring

Keaton Middleton Saginaw Spirit

The Saginaw captain and Maple Leafs 4th round draft pick is a bit of a surprise selection. Looking to have a strong season in hopes of earning an NHL contract Middleton will definitely be motivated. His only time representing Canada was at the U-17 in 2014.
WJC Invite Chances: Not happening

Snubs
The list I was playing around with this weekend had 9 defencemen on it although 1 was Victor Mete who is still with the Montreal Canadians. The 2 I had on that werent on the team were Owen Sound high scoring defenceman Sean Durzi and Petes defender Matt Timms. Of that pair the most inexcusable omission is Matt Timms. He should be first in line as an injury replacement or just send him to Sudbury where there are currently only 5 defenders slated to play. In the event there is a late injury before the game in Owen Sound Durzi should have the inside track to that spot. In the list I made on the weekend I had about 8 defenders higher than Middleton but that was only because I stopped at 7 dark horse candidates for the game. There are plenty of defenders I would have had over him such as Merkley, Paquette, Hoefenmeyer, Hollowell and Gordeev.

Forwards
Will Bitten Hamilton Bulldogs Returnee (Both Games)

This will be Bitten's 3rd trip to the OHL-Russia series as he has suited up in 3 games over the past 2 seasons. An empty net goal in front of the hometown Hamilton crowd is his only point in the series. The electric forward has put on the Maple Leaf 3 times in his career at the U17, U18 and Hlinka tournament. He has medaled once picking up a gold at the Hlinka in the summer of 2015. He picked up 5 points at the U17 and 8 points at the U18 so he is no stranger to producing on the national stage. Bitten will need a big two games to get off the WJC bubble which is why he will be suiting up in both games.
WJC Invite Chances: Average

Boris Katchouk Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds Returnee (Both Games)

The Greyhounds scoring star and Tampa Bay Lightning 2nd round pick was an injury replacement last year and picked up a goal in Hamilton. A game in which he was one of the better forwards on team OHL. He has only suited up for Canada once picking up a goal and an assist in 5 games at the 2016 U18. He has had good showings in other short tournament formats. As a 16 year old he picked up 6 points in 4 games for the Soo Thunderbirds as they won the Dudley Hewitt Cup to advance to Canada's Jr A championship the RBC Cup. Fluent in Russian and dynamic on the penalty kill he should have a good chance at a camp invite with a strong 2 games.
WJC Invite Chances: Good

Adam Mascherin Kitchener Rangers Returnee

The Rangers prolific scorer and owner of over 200 career OHL points has only worn the Maple Leaf once in his career and that was at the U17 level. Mascherin played in both OHL-Russia games last year picking up a goal in North Bay. Left off the World Junior Camp roster last season inspite of the fact he was among the OHL leaders in points. Will need a strong showing after a slower offensive start to this season.
WJC Invite Chances: Good

Jordan Kyrou Sarnia Sting Returnee

Like Will Bitten this will be Kyrou's 3rd appearence in the OHL-Russia Series. The prolific scorer from the Sarnia Sting already has 1 goal and 2 assists to his name from those 3 games. Kyrou is a bout as close to a lock as you can get for a player who has not been to a WJC camp before. He has donned the Maple Leaf 3 times in his career picking up 4 assists at the U17, 5 goals and 3 assists at the U18 and finally a goal and an assists in 4 Hlinka games on his way to a gold medal. Kyrou should hit the 200 career OHL point mark this weekend and is a viable threat to make Canada's Olympic team assuming David Branch allows CHL players to go to South Korea.
WJC Invite Chances: Lock

Taylor Raddysh Erie Otters Returnee

With Michael McLeod on the shelf with knee surgury/in New Jersey Raddysh is the only returning player on the roster to have played let alone been at the selection camp. This will be Raddysh's 3rd time on the OHL squad playing a game in both 2015 and 2016. In Hamilton last year he was named player of the game picking up 2 goals and an assist. He would pick up a Silver medal in last years U20 tournament adding 5 goals and an assist in 7 games. before that his only other time donning the Maple Leaf was at the U17 level.
WJC Invite Chances: Lock

Givani Smith Guelph Storm Returnee (Both Games)

Smith has yet to suit up for the Storm this year after suffering a high ankle sprain at Red Wings camp in late September. Smith is a returning player who picked up an assist as well as a pair of minor penalties in 2 games last year. His only time wearing a Maple Leaf was at the U17 level where he was held pointless in 5 games but racked up 16 penalties minutes. He will need to show that he is disciplined enough to warrent an invite to Canada's world junior camp.
WJC Invite Chances: Slim

Alex Formenton London Knights (Both Games)

Formenton has never worn a Maple Leaf at any level but what he does have over everyone else is the fact that he suited up for an NHL game this year with the Ottawa Senators. A 2nd round pick of the Ottawa Senators Formenton was held pointless in 14 playoff games with London Last year. He will need a strong month plus a great showing in these games. That said when was the last time someone with NHL experience didnt get a camp invite?
WJC Invite Chances: Good

Jonah Gadjovich Owen Sound Attack (Both Games)

Recently signed to an ELC by the Vancouver Canucks. Gadjovich has never suited up for Team Canada at any level. He is coming off of a 46 goal campaign last year and is off to another hot start. His familiarity with Nick Suzuki should work in his favour and a strong 2 games are a must to impress WJC assistant coach Trevor Letowski
WJC Invite Chances: below average

Cliff Pu London Knights (Both Games)

Drafted in the 3rd round by the Buffalo Sabres 69th overall in 2016. Pu is off to a slow start like most Knights with only 4 points in 9 games after getting 86 a year ago. Pu has suited up for Canada only once before and that was at the U17 level back in the 2014-15 season.
WJC Invite Chances: Below Average

Nick Suzuki Owen Sound Attack (Both Games)

The 2017 1st round draft pick of the Las Vegas Golden Knights has no reason to believe he wont be at Canada's world junior camp. Leading the OHL in scoring through 4 weeks. He has won a gold medal at the U17 level and has also donned the Maple Leaf at the Hlinka tournament. I expect him to have a pair of big games for team OHL.
WJC invite Chances: Strong

Robert Thomas London Knights

A 1st round pick of the St Louis Blues in 2017 Thomas really turned some heads at their training camp this year. His only Team Canada experience is at the U17 level where he helped Team Canada White win the gold medal. That wasnt his only champion ship that year as he also helped the London Knights with the OHL and Memorial Cup Championships. Not a bad trifecta for a 16 year old.
WJC Invite Chances: Average

MacAuley Carson Sudbury Wolves

The only undrafted player (who is not yet NHL draft eligible) on the OHL roster. Currently recovering from a broken wrist the Sudbury Wolves product is coming off of a 30 goal season. A long shot to get a camp invite but the same thing was said about Marcus Foligno the last time an OHL-Russia game was held in Sudbury.
WJC Invite Chances: Slim

Morgan Frost Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds

As a 4th round pick Frost was never really in the conversation for an U17 or Hlinka spot with Team Canada and thanks to the Greyhounds strong showing last year in the OHL playoffs he didnt get an oppertunity to play in the U18. The Flyers 1st round pick though fought his way into a key role on a deep Hounds team last year and hasnt missed a beat so far this season as an offensive leader.
WJC Invite Chances: Average but strong for next year

Nate Schnarr Guelph Storm

Thanks to the Guelph Storm being a tire fire the last 2 years Nate Schnarr was given the oppertunity to play for Team Canada at the U18 where he finished with 1 assist in 5 games. A 3rd round pick of the Arizona Coyotes Schnarr is more likely an option for next years World Junior team as opposed to this years.
WJC Invite Chances: Slim but good for next year

Jack Studnicka Oshawa Generals

Personally I am a big fan of the Oshawa centre and would not be shocked if he does in fact get a world junior invite. He has suited up for Canada 3 times in international competition. He picked up 5 points at the 2015 U17 before suiting up for Canada at the Hlinka in the summer of 2016. There he was held pointless in 4 games but joined Canada late into the U18 after the Generals were elimated in the playoffs last year and picked up 3 goals in 3 games.
WJC Invite Chances: Slim but strong for next season

Jonathan Ang Peterborough Petes (Both Games)

The Peterborough forward and Florida Panthers 4th round pick will be playing in both games this year. He has only reprasented canada once and that was at the U17 level where he picked up 3 goals and 1 assist in 5 games. Ang will have to show a commitment to discipline in these 2 games and an ability to play more than an offensive role as he is farther down the offensive ladder her than in Peterborough.
WJC Invite Chances: Slim

Snubs:
How in the world is Akil Thomas not on this team? In fact how is it that there are zero nhl draft eligible forwards on this team. Raddysh, Bitten and Kyrou all played as 17 year olds and I am sure it was a great expierience and helped aid in their development. There are a few players on this team who could take a back seat to someone like Thomas who I would argue at 17 is better than a few of these players. Hancock was another player I had on my list but with the amount of Attack players on the roster already im more open to looking past his ommision. I am surprised that Issac Ratcliff got the nod over Nate Schnarr and Entwhistles ommission is somewhat puzzling. Needless to say there are plenty of viable options to fill in as injury replacements this year and with Smith and Carson banged up we could see some.

Breakdown of Roster by OHL Team
Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds - 4
London Knights - 4
Owen Sound Attack - 3
Mississauga Steelheads - 2
Peterborough Petes - 2
Erie Otters - 2
Kitchener Rangers - 2
Guelph Storm - 2
Hamilton Bulldogs - 1
Sarnia Sting - 1
Ottawa 67's - 1
Saginaw Spirit - 1
Windsor Spitfires - 1
Sudbury Wolves - 1

Breakdown by NHL Draft Rights
Draft Eligible - 3
Undrafted - 1
Florida - 2
Las Vegas - 2
Vancouver - 2
St. Louis - 2
Detroit - 2
Tampa Bay - 2
Las Angeles - 2
Edmonton - 1
Toronto - 1
Montreal - 1
Arizona - 1
Philadelphia - 1
Colorado - 1
Winnipeg - 1
Buffalo - 1
Ottawa - 1

Breakdown by NHL Draft Round 
Round 1 - 4
Round 2 - 9
Round 3 - 5
Round 4 - 3
Round 5 - 2

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