OHL Goalie Trade Market

With the acquisition of Michael Giugovez and the proclamation that Justin Nichols had played his last game with the Guelph Storm Mike Kelly got the OHL Goalie market going. The trade market for goalies is always a tricky thing. At the end of the day there is only 20 starting spots available and only 20 backup spots. This ultimately squeezes the demand side of the supply demand curve and there always tends to be a team out of contention with a veteran goalie available.

When there is an increase in supply the supply curve shifts left thus lowering the equilibrium point and prices drop. In order for teams to get a higher return they either need supply to shift to the right (less available) or demand to shift to the right (more teams looking for goalies). This year there seems to be the opposite of both those things.

What further complicates the goalie trade market is that isn't always an efficient use of an OA slot to use it on a goalie if you are a contending team. Only 3 teams have won an OHL championship in the last 3 years with an OA goalie (OTT 01, KIT 03, WSR 09. Thank you Jim Parcels for the info) as you tend to get more value out of skaters as you will be an OA short when your backup is in the net. Also if a team already has 3 OA spots taken it adds another layer of complication to any potential trade. Last season there were those in the media who claimed Saginaw would get a boatload of picks for Paterson. At the end of the day a limited market which was shrunken further by his OA status had him land in Kitchener for only a 2^nd and a 3^rd.

Currently the market for teams in need of goalies is a little murky. There are a few teams who may be looking at upgrades and I will go into more detail in that regard later on in the post. For now I'll have a look at goalies who could be trade targets.

The Overagers

Justin Nichols

Already said to be on the market and has played his final game for the Guelph Storm. The frustration has been boiling for a while on a very weak Guelph team. A spearing penalty one night and a couple of days later a goalie fight that led to a 5 game suspension. It isnt the first time Just in Nichols has had questions about his emotions as he tried to goad Soo Greyhounds goalie Brandon Halverson into a fight in the 2^nd round of the playoffs last year as the Hounds were finishing off an extremely overmatched Storm team.

While he may have questions about his emotions there is no denying that Nichols has been a solid goalie. He has a .914 sv% this year on a god awful Guelph team. Has an OHL championship under his belt and has played more than 9500 minutes of OHL hockey (regular season and playoffs) in his career.

He would be an upgrade to a number of teams but will that upgrade be quantifibly large enough to justify the potential cost that Guelph is looking for in return?

Charlie Graham

Another vet who is entering his 5^th year on the OHL. Backed up Malcom Subban in 12-13 before taking over the starting job the next season. Had a very solid .914 sv% last year and was the main reason Belleville was able to squeak into the playoffs as the 8^th seed in the East. While his numbers arent as great this year he has been Hamiltons best player on many nights.

The biggest obstacle in my opinion to Graham moving is that with this being the first year in Hamilton the power brokers of the franchise may feel added pressure to make the playoffs even if they will be nothing more than road apples to a higher seeds march to the conference championship. With the plethora of goalies available with that shirk the possible return down to the point where keeping him is the only logical option?

Jake Smith

In my opinion the top OA goalie that could be available on the market. While he has only had 1 regular season in which his SV% was greater than .900 he has always been money in the playoffs. Kept and overmatched North Bay Battalion team in it vs Guelph in the 2014 finals and was stellar in pushing Oshawa to 6 games last season. A career .916 SV% in 39 OHL playoff games.

The Battalion currently sit 7^th in the East with a 5 point lead on Hamilton who is in 8^th and a 9 point lead on 10^th place Sudbury. The have 2 very attractive pieces in Smith and Amadio and with only 2 2^nd round picks coming up in the next 5 years you would have to think that Stan Butler may be motivated to move some pieces.

The NHL Draft Picks

Brandon Halverson

Halverson is coming off of a 40-7 season where he helped lead the Hounds to the Western Conference championship. Surprised many by claiming the backup job for Team USA at the World Juniors last year and is considered by many to be the preeminent puck handling goalie in the OHL.

This season though hasn't been the greatest for Halverson as he injured his ankle in training camp and missed the first few weeks of the season because of it. He hasn't been as sharp as last year since he has come back and it seems as though his confidence is waning. There is still talent there and he is an attractive option to a team who believes in his talent. He has been signed by the New York Rangers.

Alex Nedeljkovic

Has put up stellar numbers every season he has been in the league. The last 2 years he has helped carry 2 very weak Plymouth Whaler teams. As a 16 year old in 2013 he helped the Whalers advance to the OHL Conference finals.

A signed draft pick of the Carolina Hurricanes after being selected 37^th overall in the 2014 NHL draft. With out a doubt in the conversation for the top goalie in the league and firmly entrenched in the top 3 he will be the target for any contender who feels they need a major upgrade between the pipes.

The Waiver Option

Brendan Burke

Recently put on Waivers by the Calgary Hitmen of the WHL after a trade was unable to be worked out. If he clears WHL waivers then he is open to joining an OHL team if he so desires. Currently has a 1.97 GAA and a .931 SV% in 7 games this season.

Already this season 1 WHL OA has made waives in the OHL as Garret Hughson has taken the reins in Windsor and has been absolutely stellar for the Spits. Burke would be a great option for a team looking to upgrade their goalie situation without subtracting an asset.

At the end of the day I dont see him getting past WHL waivers but if he did boy would that muddly an already crowded market.

The Insurance Policies

Mathew Mancina

Was Stellar 1B option in Guelph their championship year (even winning the CHL goalie of the week award) before Justin Nichols took over shortly after Christmas. Eventually traded to Peterborough where he has been a solid OHL starter. While I don't think he would be targeted by a contender to carry the load he could be an affordable insurance policy for a team to carry as a backup.

Troy Timpano

Has had a tough go on some really bad Sudbury teams. You have to wonder if he would thrive on a better team similar to Frankie Palazzese who shined after leaving Kingston. With the recently acquired Bowman and U17 goalie Jake McGrath as options for next year you would have to think that someone is going to be moved.

Justin Fazio

Justin has been solid this year but his name has been popping up recently from reliable OHL sources like Josh Brown. The only way this makes sense is if Sarnia adds a better goalie. They are in a tough spot in terms of the Jr hockey build cycle. A year or two away from being really dangerous but will Chychrun be around even for next year?

These are all goalies that could plausible be moved with some of them most likely moving. While we now have the supply side of the curve figured out what about the demand side? Most fans dream of what their players can get in a trade but they tend to forget that a team must be willing to pay the price and when a team has options it tends to drive the price down and that is a situation I think we will see as there aren't many teams shopping.

Niagara

If Niagara goes for it (and in spite of recent comments from Marty Williamson I feel they will go for it) they will almost certainly move on from the Brent Moran experiment. Loaded with potential he has never been able to put it all together as they traded for an OA goalie last year and will most likely make a move this year. The play of 17 year old Stephen Dhillon has bought them some time as he has moved from backup to 1B to 1A between the pipes at the Meridian Centre.

The Icedogs currently have 3 OA skaters on their roster so you can count them out for an OA goalie. That leaves us with Halverson and Nedeljkovic as the most likely options. With Dhillon being 17 you would rather target a 19 year old rather than ride the youngster if you are making a serious push.

Sarnia

The Sting seem to be in the market for an upgrade over Fazio and with 2 open OA spots on their team after trading Nikadorov this week you would have to think they will target an OA goalie. The Nichols suspension complicates things as you would have to keep Fazio around or wait till the suspension is over to pull the trigger and find a trading partner for Fazio. Another option is to overpay for Graham or Smith. The more games you have with the goalie the greater the value on your return is.

Barrie

They will need an insurance policy. With Blackwood entrenched as the starter and rightfully so you can count them out for an OA or for one of the big 19 year olds. Mancina or Timpano could make sense here. The bonus with Timpano is you would have a starter set up for next season.

Ottawa 67's

I have heard their name as a team who could upgrade but are they really looking for that if Konechny is being shopped? On top of that with the play of Lazarev how much of an upgrade is really up there and it would be hard to justify the cost with such a tiny improvement.

Windsor Spitfires

They recently got rid of some goalies and with the play of Hughson and start '99 Dipietro backing him up there is no room in their crowded crease for any upgrade

London Knights

Vella may be the goalie of the future but Parsons could use a better insurance policy. London has never been shy to go out and acquire a top notch goalie so you would have to wonder if they would make a play for Halverson or Nedelkovic to split time with Parsons and keep him fresh for the playoffs. Ultimately I think they go in another direction but goaltending is an area I expect them to address.

Kitchener Rangers

The Rangers are in a good place between the pipes. Opilka is starting to get hot. Carty has been solid when healthy (a place he should be again soon) and 16 year old rookie Luke Richardson looked great in his first game and has been fantastic playing for the Jr B Dutchies. They should be comfortable using their plethora of trade assets to address other areas of the team.

At the end of the day I would be shocked if any goalie recieved a package that included more than 2 2nd round draft picks. The only scenario in which I see that occurring is if London entered the Nedeljkovic sweepstakes. The OA goalie market is too crowded and limited and contenders just wont spend that many assets on insurance policies. So far the real winners are the Owen Sound Attack and the Mississauga Steelheads. The Steelheads got Flinn for a 5th and an OA. Owen Sound got out of the market quickly and now have an asset in Bryson Cianfrone who can grab them a few more pieces if they chose to trade him at the deadline. If not they picked up a whole season of value from him. It will be interesting to see which team will be left with a goalie that they wanted to trade.