Monday 9 November 2015

Analyzing Team Draft Pick Caches

As well all know draft picks are the new currency used to acquire players as teams gear up at the OHL trade deadline. Fans would love their teams to pick up players instead of picks but at the end of the day it doesnt always make sense for contending teams to unload to many bodies and draft picks dont have no trade clauses and you dont have to yank them out of school.

Last season alone from December 30th to the trade deadline on January 9th there were 27 2nd round draft picks (+ 2 conditional) 13 3rd round draft picks (plus 3 conditional) and 8 4th round draft picks (plus 3 conditional) traded. These picks were used by teams in various stages of compete from Contenders like Erie, Oshawa and Sault Ste Marie to Sudbury and Peterborough who both traded and traded for high draft picks.

The big question would be "Is there any value in having multiple draft picks?" and the answer is yes and no. Without going into too much detail you can get the law of diminished returns if you have too many 2nds or 3rds in a short period of time. The main reason being is that there is a finite amount of ice time to go around. Spread out over a period of time can be advantagous however as you can inturn use it to go on a run yourself. London has been very good at this as they have loaded up when they have felt they had a chance and stockpiled picks while rebuilding on the fly.

Lets have a look at what some teams have.

Most 2nds over the next 5 seasons

Peterborough 10 Seem to always be near the top as the Pete's are in a perpetual rebuild but they do a good job of flipping 2nds for extra picks when teams are short for upcoming drafts

Guelph 9 Even after unloading a ton of picks to get Kerby Rychel they have done a great job of restocking the cupboard as they enter a full rebuild

Owen Sound 8 When you have a 1st round pick as good as Victor Mete not report this is the bonus. On top of the extra 1st playing for them this year they have a nice cache of picks to help build around their solid foundation

Kitchener 7 When a team with one of the best records also boasts some of the most 2nd round draft picks you know teams will be hard pressed to top them at the trade deadline

Flint 7 Another team who got a boost from a 1st that didnt commit. The downside though is that with all the recent turmoil who will commit?

Least Amount of 2nds over the next 5 seasons

Sault Ste Marie 0 The cost of making a run was all their 2nds. To compound things is that Jared McCann has made the Canucks thus giving them 1 less tradible asset to restock.

Erie 1 Another team that loaded up last season. An interesting case still as they are one of the top teams in the Midwest but do they have the assets to compete at the deadline?

North Bay 2 Eastern Conference finalists last year will most likely be restocking the cupboards at the trade deadline as they slide back to the middle of the conference.

Barrie 3 limited 2nds but they do get a compensentory 1st next year for Jake Tortora not coming to training camp. Also if he reports to the Kitchener Rangers they get 3 2nd round picks from 2020-22

Oshawa Generals 3 They may actually have 4 2nds as one of their picks sent to London was conditional and I couldnt find the conditions on it.


Most 3rd Round Picks

Flint 9

Least 3rd Round Picks

Mississauga 1

2nds By Division next 5 seasons (conditional picks not included)

East Division 26 2nds

Central Division 17 2nds

Midwest Division 30 2nds

West Division 23 2nds

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